Sovereign Debt

In December 2024, South Africa assumed the presidency of the G20, a position which ended on 30th November 2025. Addressing the issue of debt sustainability was highlighted as a key priority of the presidency. During its tenure, South Africa has taken steps such as the G20 Ministerial Declaration on Debt Sustainability in October 2025. The Expert Panel has also released its report titled ‘Growth, Debt and Development: Opportunities for a New African Partnership’ in which it addresses the issue of sovereign debt in Africa and provides guidance to South Africa’s G20 Presidency on the collective measures required to unlock the continent’s global development potential. This Update will outline the background to the report within the context of the G20, particularly South Africa’s presidency thereof, and analyze its key propositions, with particular attention to whether it offers realistic pathways to debt sustainability in Africa, or if gaps remain.

In this quarterly report, we argue that Africa’s ongoing debt crisis is deeply intertwined with the legacies of colonialism, the political pressures of post-independence governance, and the global financial system’s exploitative practices. Recently liberated African states in the 1970s and 1980s faced the dual challenge of fulfilling liberation promises, such as expanding education, healthcare, and infrastructure, while relying on favorable commodity prices to sustain economic growth. This combination of political urgency and economic optimism led to extensive borrowing, often underpinned by forced loans and unrealistic economic forecasting. When the global economic downturn hit, these debts became unsustainable. In response, international financial institutions (IFIs) imposed Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) that mandated austerity, privatization, and drastic cuts to social spending.

This quarterly report argues that Africa’s ongoing debt crisis is deeply intertwined with the legacies of colonialism, the political pressures of post-independence governance, and the global financial system’s exploitative practices. Recently liberated African states in the 1970s and 1980s faced the dual challenge of fulfilling liberation promises, such as expanding education, healthcare, and infrastructure, while relying on favorable commodity prices to sustain economic growth. This combination of political urgency and economic optimism led to extensive borrowing, often underpinned by forced loans and unrealistic economic forecasting.

On November 6 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that it had concluded its mission to Senegal which occurred from October 22 to November 6, 2025. These discussions were geared at advancing discussions initiated during the 2025 Annual Meetings on a new IMF-supported programme and to review progress on corrective measures related to Senegal’s hidden debt. The “hidden debt” in question refers to a debt underreporting incident uncovered in late 2024 from the country’s previous administration. From all indications, this scandal continues to haunt Senegal, which has recently concluded the most recent IMF mission, notably without any new lending agreements. Following this, Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko reportedly shunned any proposal to restructure the country’s public debt. He said the measure, supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), would be a “disgrace” for the country. This Update will consider Senegal’s current debt landscape and examine its current stance towards arresting its debt challenges.

According to the Nigerian Debt Management Office, Nigeria raised $2.25 billion in a bond sale on Wednesday, 5 November 2025. The sale reflected what Reuters referred to as a ‘sharp improvement in global borrowing conditions’ which has lured so-called highly indebted sovereigns back to international capital markets. Notably, Congo Republic, Angola and Kenya have also sold their high-yield debt to eager investors. Others such as Senegal and Cote d’Ivoire, which in a bid to assume a more conservative stance have resorted to the regional markets instead, such as the West African Monetary Union (WAMU). Nigeria's dual-tranche listing for ten-year and twenty-year bonds was oversubscribed by as much as 12 times. The long 10-year (maturing 2036) and long 20-year (maturing 2046) notes were priced at 8.625% and 9.125% respectively.

Following its 2020 default on its US$42.5 million Eurobond payment, Zambia became the first African country to experience a sovereign default during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, it has been engaged in a protracted effort to restructure its debt, notably under the G20 Common Framework. This Update explores the divergent positions in this dispute and situates the debate within the broader context of the evolving role of regional multilateral development banks in sovereign debt restructuring. It will also examine Zambia’s strategy of third-party subrogation of Afreximbank’s debt and assess whether it offers a viable path forward in resolving its debt crisis and furthering the relevance of African Multilateral Development Banks in the long-term.

The African Sovereign Debt Justice Network, (AfSDJN), is a coalition of citizens, scholars, civil society actors and church groups committed to exposing the adverse impact of unsustainable levels of African sovereign debt on the lives of ordinary citizens. Convened by Afronomicslaw.org with the support of Open Society for Southern Africa, (OSISA), the AfSDJN's activities are tailored around addressing the threats that sovereign debt poses for economic development, social cohesion and human rights in Africa. It advocates for debt cancellation, rescheduling and restructuring as well as increasing the accountability and responsibility of lenders and African governments about how sovereign debt is procured, spent and repaid. Focusing in particular on Kenya, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Nigeria and Senegal, the AfSDJN will also amplify African voices and decolonize narratives on African sovereign debt . Its activities include producing research outputs to enhance the network’s advocacy interventions. It also seeks to create awareness on and elevate the priority given to sovereign debt and other economic justice issues on the African continent and beyond throughout 2021.

The African Sovereign Debt Justice Network, (AfSDJN), is a coalition of citizens, scholars, civil society actors and church groups committed to exposing the adverse impact of unsustainable levels of African sovereign debt on the lives of ordinary citizens. Convened by Afronomicslaw.org with the support of Open Society for Southern Africa, (OSISA), the AfSDJN's activities are tailored around addressing the threats that sovereign debt poses for economic development, social cohesion and human rights in Africa. It advocates for debt cancellation, rescheduling and restructuring as well as increasing the accountability and responsibility of lenders and African governments about how sovereign debt is procured, spent and repaid. Focusing in particular on Kenya, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Nigeria and Senegal, the AfSDJN will also amplify African voices and decolonize narratives on African sovereign debt . Its activities include producing research outputs to enhance the network’s advocacy interventions. It also seeks to create awareness on and elevate the priority given to sovereign debt and other economic justice issues on the African continent and beyond throughout 2021.

The African Sovereign Debt Justice Network, (AfSDJN), is a coalition of citizens, scholars, civil society actors and church groups committed to exposing the adverse impact of unsustainable levels of African sovereign debt on the lives of ordinary citizens. Convened by Afronomicslaw.org with the support of Open Society for Southern Africa, (OSISA), the AfSDJN's activities are tailored around addressing the threats that sovereign debt poses for economic development, social cohesion and human rights in Africa. It advocates for debt cancellation, rescheduling and restructuring as well as increasing the accountability and responsibility of lenders and African governments about how sovereign debt is procured, spent and repaid. Focusing in particular on Kenya, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Nigeria and Senegal, the AfSDJN will also amplify African voices and decolonize narratives on African sovereign debt . Its activities include producing research outputs to enhance the network’s advocacy interventions. It also seeks to create awareness on and elevate the priority given to sovereign debt and other economic justice issues on the African continent and beyond throughout 2021.

According to Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO), as of the second quarter of 2025, Nigeria's total public debt reached ₦152 trillion (US$190 billion), marking an increase of ₦3 trillion compared to the first quarter of the year. This debt is made up of ₦80.55 trillion (US$ 100.69 billion) in domestic obligations and ₦71.84 trillion (US$89.8 billion) in external liabilities, reflecting both federal and subnational borrowing. The growth in total debt, though significant in nominal terms, is contextualized by projections from the World Bank, which indicate that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio may decline below 40% by the end of 2025 if current trends in economic growth continue. This potential improvement in debt sustainability reflects an expectation that increased economic activity, improved revenue collection, and a moderate fiscal deficit could help stabilize the country’s debt relative to its GDP. Nevertheless, the sheer magnitude of the debt underscores the ongoing fiscal pressures facing Nigeria and raises questions about the effectiveness of current debt management strategies.